A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
